A month of Aries. From pacts to "red lines" with AD

In his first month as leader, José Luís Carneiro brought together those who were on the same page and those who were on the same page, drawing "red lines" with the AD (Administrative Advocacy Party) with whom he hoped to build bridges (he was the moderate voice of the PS), took a step back on the State Budget (which initially seemed to want to push through) and another in his relationship with the AD Government (which has preferred another "handshake"). But before going on vacation, he will meet with Montenegro.

Carneiro's biggest challenge has been positioning the party in the current political climate, where he sees the AD rapidly moving closer to Chega, losing its ability to influence governance. Carneiro has sent letters and proposals to Luís Montenegro and, at the same time, warned the AD that it must choose, because the PS is not willing to share the space for consensus with Chega: "The PS can never be placed on the same level as a party that undermines democratic values."

This Monday, he will sit down with the prime minister in São Bento for a meeting, in the run-up to which he has been trying to pressure the AD to turn to the PS. At the same time, within his party, he is beginning to feel pressure to move away from agreements with the governing right-wing. Carneiro has been hesitant to draw that line yet. One night, he toughens his stance with the AD, but the following afternoon sends a proposal to the same AD. Observador reviews Carneiro's first 30 days in office in five points.

Carneiro's group of advisors "could form several governments" (half have already formed)

The Socialist Party (PS) was eagerly awaiting a meeting with Prime Minister José Luís Carneiro, who had already stated that he wanted to discuss matters of the regime and was awaiting the "government's initiative." The meeting comes this week, right on the cusp of the holiday season, and when the atmosphere between the AD and the PS could not be more tense .

There have been no signs of closer ties between the two parties that have alternated in power for the past 50 years, and the Socialists have taken advantage of the situation to accuse the AD of "having landed in André Ventura's lap "—as parliamentary leader Eurico Brilhante Dias put it in the State of the Nation debate earlier this month. "The 'no means no'—so often repeated during the election campaign— is history ," wrote the PS's own general secretary in an opinion piece in Público, regarding changes to laws affecting immigrants.

Even so, the day after toughening his stance—a line he launched after leaving a meeting of the Socialist Party's National Political Committee, where he was pressured to cut ties with the AD—José Luís Carneiro once again reached out to Montenegro with a proposal to create a unit to coordinate hospital emergencies. The relationship he intends to have with the AD still seems far from solid , and Carneiro remains unconvinced that the cut is the path to political survival (for himself and the PS).

The debate has been between fighting to remain considered on sovereignty issues or making a complete break with the AD. At the National Political Committee meeting, Carneiro heard some of the socialists less aligned with his leadership, such as Pedro Silva Pereira and José António Vieira da Silva, argue that the PS should capitalize on the AD/Chega coalition's momentum on immigration to cement its position as opposition leader, distancing itself from agreements with the AD.

Carneiro pressured in the PS to distance himself from the AD and pushes the potato to Montenegro

Leaving the meeting, Carneiro changed his tone: "The prime minister must decide with whom he wants to build state solutions, sovereignty solutions. And he must have historical awareness and a memory of what the PS, PPD, and CDS mean." He shifted from a socialist voice seeking "democratic consensus" with the AD—this moderation had even received praise from parliamentary leader Hugo Soares, in opposition to Pedro Nuno Santos—to a more forceful voice with the right-wing coalition.

Still, the gestures remain inconsistent, and Carneiro remains open to a strategic agreement on Defense, which Montenegro has already stated will have to include "everyone," and hopes that this could also be the case for other areas of sovereignty (where he has not yet put forward concrete proposals). He continues to await a signal from Montenegro to define his position.

Budget. Preliminary promise of shaky viability

Scalded by a budget negotiation last summer that so severely damaged Pedro Nuno Santos's leadership, José Luís Carneiro attempted to stem a new wave of pressure on the Socialist Party's position regarding the proposal the government will deliver on October 10th. He set aside negotiations on the government's proposal, committing to only comment on it after hearing it.

The "openness to viability" was expressed a month before the PS's direct elections, shortly after the resounding defeat in the legislative elections that left the PS in third place in Parliament: "By making the Government's program viable, in principle, the instrument for implementing the Government's program must also be made viable , which is the Budget." This door remains open, although the path for the PS to cross without having to bow its head is narrower.

At the same time, Carneiro defined that the proposal would have to respect the Socialist Party's "view of the NHS, the pension system, social security, and public education." Also last Saturday, in response to the government's proposed labor law reform, the Socialist expressed his opposition to proposals he believes would "undermine the agenda for decent work and seek to devalue collective bargaining." These are "red lines that the Socialist Party cannot accept," he said regarding labor matters—and, even if this discussion were to take place in parallel, it would be difficult not to politically impact the budget debate.

Internal pressure. Leading from the shadows

The shadow of a temporary leadership continues to weigh heavily on Carneiro's shoulders, as he has done everything to please both Greeks and Trojans—or in this case, Costa supporters, Pedronunistas, and other party members. A clear reflection of this is the national leadership he has assembled , where he brings together members of these various wings of the party every two weeks.

Keeping the opposition within his decision-making circle was one of the paths he favored, knowing that he currently occupies one of the most difficult positions in national politics. His discomfort with the idea of a leadership undermined on all sides was evident as soon as he presented his candidacy in June, when he made a point of peppering his speech with internal warnings, calling for unity with those who may have "individual aspirations, both near and far."

He warned several times throughout his speech that no one would "forgive" the Socialist Party if it were to "now remain self-absorbed or engage in mutually attacking our credibility and our qualities." He acknowledged the need for post-legislative "reflection," but that it should not be confused "with temptations to settle internal scores or with giving in to attempts at exploitation by our main opponents."

Carneiro tries "diversity," amidst many rejections. And creates a strategic council.

At that point, it was already known who would be the sole candidate for the leadership, but along the way, it became clear who had been plotting, from the outset, to run an alternative candidate to Carneiro. All members of this core group —Fernando Medina, Mariana Vieira da Silva, Duarte Cordeiro, and Ana Catarina Mendes—were invited to join the new leadership, but only Ana Catarina Mendes accepted. Vieira da Silva joined the bloc's leadership, while Medina and Cordeiro preferred to sit at another level, such as the National Political Commission, the broad governing body where important political and operational decisions are made within the party—the one where, typically, the most critical voices are heard.

Between the lines of all these movements , the existence of a specific pressure group is clear, with voices that may appear dissenting and are preparing an alternative front. But the timing of their positioning may depend more on the country's political context than on Carneiro's leadership style. The political situation will determine the intruder in this leadership.

Reorganize. With dissenting voices, former government officials, and civil society

The result of this tense environment was a diverse leadership, with names ranging from Francisco Assis and Sérgio Sousa Pinto (who supported Pedro Nuno in 2023, opposing Carneiro), to João Torres and Pedro Costa (supporters of Pedro Nuno), and Ana Catarina Mendes and Jamila Madeira (former rivals). But Carneiro also brought in names he trusted, such as André Moz Caldas, Filipe Santos Costa, Luís Parreirão, Inês de Medeiros, and Maria Antónia Almeida Santos.

Meanwhile, regarding internal reorganization, the PS still has its long-promised post-legislative internal reflection to do. Due to the local elections, it has been pushed back, as has the party congress, which still has no scheduled date. Meanwhile, Carneiro also wants to demonstrate his ability to expand the party beyond the walls of its national headquarters in Largo do Rato , reestablishing ties to the region that the initial Socialist analysis of the legislative elections classified as lost in these elections.

The previous leadership, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, planned for this year to launch the new Estates General, a Guterrismo model (which in other areas had other names: José Sócrates, for example, called it "New Frontiers") that aimed to involve civil society and others in the development of policies that could be included in the Socialist Party's future electoral program. This objective was thwarted due to the early legislative elections, and now Carneiro is moving forward with the same old idea, but with a new name.

This Tuesday, the Strategic Council, a new advisory body for the leadership, was introduced, which intends to meet every three months. Of this group of 94 figures , almost half have served in Socialist governments—there is also one who was part of a PSD/CDS government: Filipe Lobo d'Ávila, former vice-president of the CDS who has since left the party. He appears alongside names such as former leader Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, António Vitorino, Pedro Siza Vieira, Fernando Medina, Augusto Santos Silva, Paulo Pedroso, Maria de Belém, António Correia de Campos, Eduardo Cabrita, Alexandra Leitão, and Maria de Lurdes Rodrigues.

Among the civil society that Carneiro wants to call to political participation are names such as Germano de Sousa, CEO of the group that bears his name, the singer Fernando Tordo (singer), Isabel Soares (director of Colégio Moderno and daughter of Mário Soares, António Rebelo de Sousa (economist and brother of the current President of the Republic), Luís Teixeira, Carlos Tavares (businessman), Aida Tavares (former artistic director of the CCB, dismissed this month), Isabel Carvalhais (university professor and former MEP) or José Manuel Castanheira (set designer).

This group guaranteed to have the names to build "not one, but several governments." As for how long it will take to reach that point, no one is taking any chances (or if they do, they're throwing it away).

Problem management. The municipal and presidential cotton test in self-management

As summer draws to a close, the PS's biggest test will come, one that some in the party dream of relying on to reposition itself as the opposition leader: the local elections. But on the fringes of this Eden lies the risk of a new electoral setback, and it is in this limbo that the Socialists now remain, betting everything on the terrain that has guaranteed them the title of largest local party for the past 12 years.

These elections are the true test of the state of affairs within the Socialist Party, after what happened in the legislative elections. And the sensitivity of the issue is such that it has served to remove any potential political obstacles , be they heated internal disputes or presidential divisions, from the way. This was the case when Carneiro positioned himself to run for the leadership, and the re-candidates preparing for the elections put internal pressure on the local government to avoid an internal struggle that could jeopardize the local government's fight.

Carneiro ultimately capitalized on this heightened sensitivity . By advancing his candidacy, he ended up being the sole candidate for the leadership, given concerns about the consequences of a leadership contest during local elections (with lists split between two leadership candidates, undermining electoral objectives).

He used the same topic again to push another issue forward: the PS's decision on who to support in the presidential election. The maneuver allowed him to buy time while candidates were being clarified on the ground, at a time when the situation was once again looking bleak for the PS, with several members, including former leader Ferro Rodrigues , expressing support for an independent candidacy (António Sampaio da Nóvoa), while a former party leader (António José Seguro) was already officially in the running.

Time passes, and Nóvoa remains silent, leaving the field clear for the Socialist leader for now, with the party taking advantage of the vacuum to pivot toward Seguro. Leaving the presidential elections to self-management has eased the burden on the secretary-general, who, by the time he gets to the issue, may already have resolved it—at the same time, inaction could earn him internal criticism in the not-so-distant future.